Current:Home > StocksOcean currents vital for distributing heat could collapse by mid-century, study says-InfoLens
Ocean currents vital for distributing heat could collapse by mid-century, study says
View Date:2024-12-23 11:13:55
A system of ocean currents that transports heat northward across the North Atlantic could collapse by mid-century, according to a new study, and scientists have said before that such a collapse could cause catastrophic sea-level rise and extreme weather across the globe.
In recent decades, researchers have both raised and downplayed the specter of Atlantic current collapse. It even prompted a movie that strayed far from the science. Two years ago the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said any such catastrophe is unlikely this century. But the new study published in Nature Communications suggests it might not be as far away and unlikely as mainstream science says.
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is a vital system of ocean currents that circulates water throughout the Atlantic Ocean, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s a lengthy process, taking an estimated 1,000 years to complete, but has slowed even more since the mid-1900s.
A further slowdown or complete halting of the circulation could create more extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere, sea-level rise on the East Coast of the United States and drought for millions in southern Africa, scientists in Germany and the U.S. have said. But the timing is uncertain.
In the new study, Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen, two researchers from Denmark, analyzed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic between 1870 and 2020 as a proxy, meaning a way of assessing, this circulation. They found the system could collapse as soon as 2025 and as late as 2095, given current global greenhouse gas emissions. This diverges from the prediction made by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change in 2021, which said the collapse isn’t likely to occur this century.
“There are large uncertainties in this study, in many prior studies, and in climate impact assessment overall, and scientists sometimes miss important aspects that can lead to both over and underprediction of impacts,” Julio Friedmann, chief scientist at Carbon Direct, a carbon management company, said in a statement. “Still, the conclusion is obvious: Action must be swift and profound to counter major climate risks.”
Stefan Rahmstorf, co-author on a 2018 study on the subject, published an extensive analysis of the Ditlevesen’s study on RealClimate, a website that publishes commentary from climate scientists. While he said that a tipping point for the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is “highly uncertain,” he also called the IPCC estimate conservative.
“Increasingly the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10% during this century,” he wrote, “...rather worrying for the next few decades.”
___
Seth Borenstein contributed from Washington, DC.
___
Follow Drew Costley on Twitter: @drewcostley.
___
The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
veryGood! (1772)
Related
- Round 2 in the Trump-vs-Mexico matchup looks ominous for Mexico
- Eric Roberts Says Addiction Battle Led to Him Losing Daughter Emma Roberts
- Refugees in New Hampshire turn to farming for an income and a taste of home
- Endangered sea corals moved from South Florida to the Texas Gulf Coast for research and restoration
- Artem Chigvintsev Returns to Dancing With the Stars Ballroom Amid Nikki Garcia Divorce
- Two Georgia deaths are tied to abortion restrictions. Experts say abortion pills they took are safe
- 80-year-old man found dead after driving around roadblock into high water
- US home sales fell in August despite easing mortgage rates, more homes on the market
- Kyle Richards Swears This Holiday Candle Is the Best Scent Ever and She Uses It All Year
- Horoscopes Today, September 18, 2024
Ranking
- Who is Rep. Matt Gaetz, the Florida congressman Donald Trump picked to serve as attorney general?
- California law cracking down on election deepfakes by AI to be tested
- Houston officer shot responding to home invasion call; 3 arrested: Police
- USWNT loses to North Korea in semifinals of U-20 Women's World Cup
- Louisiana man kills himself and his 1-year-old daughter after a pursuit
- Emily in Paris’ Lily Collins Has Surprising Pick for Emily Cooper's One True Love
- Pennsylvania state senator sues critics of his book about WWI hero Sgt. York
- The viral $2.99 Trader Joe's mini tote bags are back for a limited time
Recommendation
-
Taylor Swift's Mom Andrea Gives Sweet Nod to Travis Kelce at Chiefs Game
-
Ex-CIA officer gets 30 years in prison for drugging, sexually abusing dozens of women
-
Philadelphia teen sought to travel overseas, make bombs for terrorist groups, prosecutors say
-
Milwaukee’s new election chief knows her office is under scrutiny, but she’s ready
-
Best fits for Corbin Burnes: 6 teams that could match up with Cy Young winner
-
The viral $2.99 Trader Joe's mini tote bags are back for a limited time
-
WNBA MVP odds: Favorites to win 2024 Most Valuable Player award
-
Pregnant mom, husband who drowned while snorkeling in Maui, leave behind toddler son